Difference between revisions of "Talk:Statue Of Endless Fortune"
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(Best case payoff) |
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* While the chance of getting all those Prismatic Shards is vanishingly small, it's not meaningfully different than the chance of getting Iridium Bars. A back of the envelope calculation for 8 years of Bars returned approximately [0.000...(370 zeroes)...0002]. That may be off by several orders of magnitude, but there's no way to look at it that doesn't return an absurdly small probability. For all practical purposes, the chances of it happening are indistinguishable from zero. | * While the chance of getting all those Prismatic Shards is vanishingly small, it's not meaningfully different than the chance of getting Iridium Bars. A back of the envelope calculation for 8 years of Bars returned approximately [0.000...(370 zeroes)...0002]. That may be off by several orders of magnitude, but there's no way to look at it that doesn't return an absurdly small probability. For all practical purposes, the chances of it happening are indistinguishable from zero. | ||
Maybe an average value instead of a best-case value would be more meaningful, but the number of variables involved would make it difficult to come up with a reasonable average. I'm not going there. Instead, I'm just removing the calculation. [[User:Zendowolf|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf|talk]]) 16:58, 30 May 2021 (UTC) | Maybe an average value instead of a best-case value would be more meaningful, but the number of variables involved would make it difficult to come up with a reasonable average. I'm not going there. Instead, I'm just removing the calculation. [[User:Zendowolf|Zendowolf]] ([[User talk:Zendowolf|talk]]) 16:58, 30 May 2021 (UTC) | ||
| + | :Fair enough, but the point about the statue not paying for itself is what the original trivia point was all about. [[User:Margotbean|margotbean]] ([[User talk:Margotbean|talk]]) 17:56, 30 May 2021 (UTC) | ||
Revision as of 17:56, 30 May 2021
| This talk page is for discussing Statue Of Endless Fortune. | |
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Best case payoff
The best case scenario for paying off the cost of the Statue of Endless Fortune is wrong. As I went down the rabbit hole of trying to figure out a correct answer, it became increasingly clear that it should just be removed. Here is what I found.
- The calculation currently given does not take into account the addition of a new birthday with version 1.5. Adding the birthday takes it from 8.44 years to 8.55 years.
- However, that calculation does not take into account the value of the birthday gifts that are generated. This is what got me looking at it in the first place. Accounting for the birthday gifts, including optimal professions, takes it from 8.55 years to 7.79 years.
- But then I realized that this is not even the best case scenario. As far as I can tell, the best case scenario is to get an Omni Geode every day and to have that turn into a Prismatic Shard when cracked open. With the Gemologist profession, that would net you 2575g per day, after the cost of cracking, which is obviously greater than the 1500g used for the profession-enhanced value of an Iridium Bar.
- While the chance of getting all those Prismatic Shards is vanishingly small, it's not meaningfully different than the chance of getting Iridium Bars. A back of the envelope calculation for 8 years of Bars returned approximately [0.000...(370 zeroes)...0002]. That may be off by several orders of magnitude, but there's no way to look at it that doesn't return an absurdly small probability. For all practical purposes, the chances of it happening are indistinguishable from zero.
Maybe an average value instead of a best-case value would be more meaningful, but the number of variables involved would make it difficult to come up with a reasonable average. I'm not going there. Instead, I'm just removing the calculation. Zendowolf (talk) 16:58, 30 May 2021 (UTC)
- Fair enough, but the point about the statue not paying for itself is what the original trivia point was all about. margotbean (talk) 17:56, 30 May 2021 (UTC)