Changes

Added explanation of bet sizing
Line 52: Line 52:  
|At the Spinning Wheel, you can bet Star Tokens on whether the spinner will land on green or orange.
 
|At the Spinning Wheel, you can bet Star Tokens on whether the spinner will land on green or orange.
   −
Players can quickly earn the star tokens required to purchase all items in the shop by betting green, since the mathematical probability the wheel will land on green is 75%, versus 25% for orange.  The probability is not a guarantee for any single roll, however. For efficient profit while protecting against losses, always bet half of your current stars.
+
Players can quickly earn the star tokens required to purchase all items in the shop by betting green, since the mathematical probability the wheel will land on green is 75%, versus 25% for orange.  The probability is not a guarantee for any single roll, however. For efficient profit while protecting against losses, always bet half of your current stars. This can be calculated using the Kelly criterion for bet sizing:
 +
 
 +
Proportion to bet = Chance of Winning - (Chance of Losing / (Payoff Ratio - 1)).
 +
 
 +
Simplified for the case of doubling a bet we get
 +
 
 +
Proportion to Bet = (2 * Probability of Winning) - 1
 +
 
 +
Proportion to Bet = (2 * .75) - 1 = .5 = 50%
 
|-
 
|-
 
|}
 
|}