Talk:Crab Pot

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Gold per day

My edit that had shown the gold/day that crab pots make had been removed because I have to show my calculations so I will try and show it here on this talk page. Please forgive me if I am wrong because I am new to both wiki editing and I am rusty on my maths skills. I got all the information from the Stardew valley wiki.

Recycled trash items: (For all of the recycled items that can give 1-3 items, I will be using 2 as it is the median)


Trash: 1-3 (2 Average) stone=4(sell price)*0.49(percentage to get)=1.96 1-3 coal=30*0.30=9 1-3 iron:20*0.21=4.2 1.96+9+4.2=15.16

Driftwood: 1-3 wood:4*0.75=3 1-3 coal:30*0.25=7.5 3+7.5=10.5

Newspaper: 3 torches=15*0.9=13.5 cloth=470*0.1=47 47+13.5=60.5

Both CD's and Glasses don't require calculations as they have a 100% chance to give 50g from refined quartz.

Total average for all trash items: 15.16+10.5+60.5+50+50=186.16/5=37.232


This means that the 38% chance that a crab pot has to make trash, it will on average be worth 37.232g


Fresh fish:

Trash=37.272*0.38=14.163

Periwinkle=20*0.21=4.2

Snail=65*0.13=8.45

Crayfish=75x0.28=21

14.163+4.2+8.45+21=47.813 <--Average gold/day


Salt fish:

Trash=37.272*0.38=14.163

Oyster=40*0.03=1.2

Shrimp=60*0.05=3

Mussel=30*0.14=4.2

Cockle=50*0.17=8.5

Crab=100*0.06=6

Clam=50*0.12=6

Lobster=120*0.03=3.6

14.163+12+3+4.2+8.5+6+6+3.6=46.663 <--Average gold/day

The percentages on the actual chart with ocean crab pot fish only adds up to 60 so either the statement "The chance of trash appearing is 38%, regardless of luck or fishing skill" or the percentages are wrong and should total to 62% instead of just 60%. This would likely make the ocean crab pot almost identical to the fresh water crab pot profit wise. Pixelated (talk) 17:52, 18 June 2021 (UTC)

Thank you Pixelated! This is exactly what I was referring to. I will restore the edit, but move it to its own section on the page. Thanks again, margotbean (talk) 18:03, 18 June 2021 (UTC)


Forgot to add the gold/day for both freshwater fish and saltwater fish with mariner profession and where you turn all the fish into sashimi.

since all the fish have the same chance of appearing, salt water now becomes more profitable.

Salt average: 75+75+75+75+100+50+120=570/7=81.4


Fresh average: 75+75+75=225/3=75 Pixelated (talk) 19:27, 18 June 2021 (UTC)

Order of checking crab pots

For the curious, the percentages on this page are incorrect. It assumes that the code visits each crab pot in the same order as they are listed in the data file. This isn't true: it visits them as a C# Dictionary object, for which the visitation order is undefined.

Undefined but deterministic, at least for a given build. It's possible to back-out the order for a given build (by predicting crab pots). For 1.5.6, the order of checking pots is:

Beach: Lobster / Crab / Oyster / Clam / Shrimp / Cockle / Mussel

Freshwater: Snail / Crayfish / Periwinkle

This theoretically could change with a new build / Dictionary implementation and *definitely* would change if more entries were added to the Data\Fish table. --unsigned comment by Mon (talk) 14:25, 10 January 2022

I've been able to ascertain that the above comment refers to the % chance to catch each item in a crab pot, listed on the Crab Pot page, not the gold per day calculations listed above on this talk page.
The original calculations, taken from the old wiki's Fish talk page are:
Details 

Crab pot percentages inaccurate?

The chances of getting each type of fish add up to more than 100% - ocean varieties come to a total of 130% and freshwater 115%. I'm not sure where the numbers were obtained, but is it possible to verify them? Vryl (talk) 20:27, 10 November 2016 (UTC)

The crabpot percentages displayed on the page are the values from Data/Fish.xnb.
For Mariners, these percentages mean nothing. Each Ocean fish has 1/7 (≈14.29%) chance to be caught, each Freshwater fish has 1/3 (≈33.33%) chance to be caught, and junk has 0 chance to be caught.
For non-Mariners, these numbers represent the branches of the probability tree, where each fish in sequence is only rolled for if the previous fish was not caught (i.e. Lobster is only rolled for if Clam was not caught).
Non-Mariner Ocean Fish Catch Rates:
  • 0.8
    • 0.15 = 12% Clam
    • 0.85
      • 0.05 = 3.4% Lobster
      • 0.95
        • 0.1 = 6.46% Crab
        • 0.9
          • 0.3 = 17.442% Cockle
          • 0.7
            • 0.35 = 14.2443% Mussel
            • 0.65
              • 0.2 = 5.29074% Shrimp
              • 0.8
                • 0.15 = 3.174444% Oyster
                • 0.85
                  • 0.2 = 3.5977032% Trash
                  • 0.2 = 3.5977032% Driftwood
                  • 0.2 = 3.5977032% Broken Glasses
                  • 0.2 = 3.5977032% Broken CD
                  • 0.2 = 3.5977032% Soggy Newspaper
  • 0.2
    • 0.2 = 4% Trash
    • 0.2 = 4% Driftwood
    • 0.2 = 4% Broken Glasses
    • 0.2 = 4% Broken CD
    • 0.2 = 4% Soggy Newspaper
 Non-Mariner Ocean Fish Catch Rate Sum =
 + 0.8 *0.15
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.05
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.1
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.3
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.7 *0.35
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.7 *0.65 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.7 *0.65 *0.8 *0.15
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.7 *0.65 *0.8 *0.85 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.7 *0.65 *0.8 *0.85 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.7 *0.65 *0.8 *0.85 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.7 *0.65 *0.8 *0.85 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.85 *0.95 *0.9 *0.7 *0.65 *0.8 *0.85 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 = 1
Non-mariner Freshwater Fish Catch Rates:
  • 0.8
    • 0.35 = 28% Crayfish
    • 0.65
      • 0.25 = 13% Snail
      • 0.75
        • 0.55 = 21.45% Periwinkle
        • 0.45
          • 0.2 = 3.51% Trash
          • 0.2 = 3.51% Driftwood
          • 0.2 = 3.51% Broken Glasses
          • 0.2 = 3.51% Broken CD
          • 0.2 = 3.51% Soggy Newspaper
  • 0.2
    • 0.2 = 4% Trash
    • 0.2 = 4% Driftwood
    • 0.2 = 4% Broken Glasses
    • 0.2 = 4% Broken CD
    • 0.2 = 4% Soggy Newspaper
 Non-Mariner Freshwater Fish Catch Rate Sum =
 + 0.8 *0.35
 + 0.8 *0.65 *0.25
 + 0.8 *0.65 *0.75 *0.55
 + 0.8 *0.65 *0.75 *0.45 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.65 *0.75 *0.45 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.65 *0.75 *0.45 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.65 *0.75 *0.45 *0.2
 + 0.8 *0.65 *0.75 *0.45 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 + 0.2 *0.2
 = 1
Thanks for finding the inconsistency! :) --BryghtShadow (talk) 12:32, 11 November 2016 (UTC)
Any updates to the calculations are welcome! margotbean (talk) 13:41, 11 January 2022 (UTC)
I updated the probabilities(some of them changed fairly substantially), but didn't adjust the E[income/day]. --Unsigned comment by Mon (talk) 19:46, 12 January 2022
Ok, thank you! If you could please sign future posts with 4 tildes, I'd be very grateful too! Thanks again, margotbean (talk) 13:06, 13 January 2022 (UTC)

Updated Gold per Day

Freshwater
Trash = 37.272 * 0.38 = 14.163
Periwinkle = 20 * 0.21 = 4.2
Snail = 65 * 0.2 = 13
Crayfish = 75 * 0.21 = 15.75
14.163 + 4.2 + 13 + 15.75 = 47.113 <--Average gold/day

Ocean
Trash = 37.272 * 0.38 = 14.163
Oyster = 40 * 0.1 = 4
Shrimp = 60 * 0.1 = 6
Mussel = 30 * 0.1 = 3
Cockle = 50 * 0.12 = 6
Crab = 100 * 0.08 = 8
Clam = 50 * 0.09 = 4.5
Lobster = 120 * 0.04 = 4.8
14.163 + 4 + 6 + 3 + 6 + 8 + 4.5 + 4.8 = 50.463 <--Average gold/day

Mariner Profession + Turning all fish into Sashimi
No change from above
Ocean average: 75+75+75+75+100+50+120=570/7=81.4
Fresh average: 75+75+75=225/3=75
--margotbean (talk) 13:26, 13 January 2022 (UTC)

Calculating the gold per day

Hey

I wrote a program that is able to calculate the exact profit you make using crab pots. For some reason I am not allowed to post a direct link to that program. It is on github (username guslav, project StardewValleyCrabPot)

The program provides the probability trees to be printed out for a anyone to recheck the number's. This helped me to create the following table

Luremaster or no Fishing Profession Fisher Fisher/Angler Mariner Fisher/Angler & Mariner
Ocean 35.63 43.34 51.27 64.29 92.86
Ocean + Sashimi 48.03 51.13 55.71 81.43 99.29
Freshwater 33.04 41.09 49.36 53.33 79.67
Freshwater + Sashimi 46.84 51.82 59.01 75.00 94.67

the cost for bait is excluded. Rows with Sashimi assume that you turn every fish worth less then 75g into sashimi before selling. The column Fisher/Angler & Mariner assumes that you picked Mariner as your fishing profession, collect fish for a long time in a chest and sell it all at ones when you have the Angler profession (using the statue of uncertainty). The 10.000g is excluded.

It is also assumed that you do not recycle the trash for extra profit. Otherwise you can add following extra profit:

Agriculturist or no Farming Profession Rancher Artisan
Ocean 14.14 14.86 15.57
Freshwater 13.98 14.69 15.39

I would like to put these tables on the wiki replacing Gold per Day on the Crab Pot site.

Thank you --Unsigned post by Fella (talk) 23:31, 20 January 2023 (UTC)

I can see that you put a lot of effort into this topic! However, when I asked you to provide the calculations, I meant that you need to somehow filter out the calculations used, and type or copy/paste them to the wiki. The data needs to be verifiable without downloading and running a program.
Please note that the calculations and any resulting numbers should be made as brief as possible -- see the above sections for examples.
Additionally, I don't think you've fully addressed the issue of the 10,000g it costs to change professions. Readers must decide what the break-even point is for themselves. This detracts from the usefulness of the entire section. margotbean (talk) 20:19, 21 January 2023 (UTC)
I'm ok with leaving out the column angler and mariner.
Second: Why are the results different to the previous ones? The ones already published are using the probabilities from the wiki and these have only 1 significant digit. On the other hand I calculate with fraction's to avoid any rounding untill the very end.
Next point show the calculations: The problem is, that the calculations are simply long. I made a subfolder on my github with the calculations. The files will show you the exact probability tree (crab pot results+recycling machine results). For example you want to see how much profit you make in Ocean, under fisher and artisan profession, without turning into sashimi and with selling recycling goods you can look into the file calculations/InOcean_Artisan_Fisher_NoSashimi.txt. The file looks like this:


   You would make a profit of (184103173621/3125000000) ≈ 58.91 gold every day.
   The number can be obtained by the following probability tree. Just add the product of probability and selling value of any leaf in the tree together and you will get the number 58.91.
   
   (4/5) ≈ 80.0%
   +-->(1/20) ≈ 5.0%
   |       Lobster has a probability of (1/25) ≈ 4.0% and a selling value of 150. Product of both: (6/1) ≈ 6.00
   +-->(19/20) ≈ 95.0%
       +-->(1/10) ≈ 10.0%
       |       Crab has a probability of (19/250) ≈ 7.6% and a selling value of 125. Product of both: (19/2) ≈ 9.50
       +-->(9/10) ≈ 90.0%
           +-->(3/20) ≈ 15.0%
           |       Oyster has a probability of (513/5000) ≈ 10.2% and a selling value of 50. Product of both: (513/100) ≈ 5.13
           +-->(17/20) ≈ 85.0%
               +-->(3/20) ≈ 15.0%
               |       Clam has a probability of (8721/100000) ≈ 8.7% and a selling value of 50. Product of both: (8721/2000) ≈ 4.36
               +-->(17/20) ≈ 85.0%
                   +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
                   |       Shrimp has a probability of (49419/500000) ≈ 9.8% and a selling value of 75. Product of both: (148257/20000) ≈ 7.41
                   +-->(4/5) ≈ 80.0%
                       +-->(3/10) ≈ 30.0%
                       |       Cockle has a probability of (148257/1250000) ≈ 11.8% and a selling value of 62. Product of both: (4595967/625000) ≈ 7.35
                       +-->(7/10) ≈ 70.0%
                           +-->(7/20) ≈ 35.0%
                           |       Mussel has a probability of (2421531/25000000) ≈ 9.6% and a selling value of 37. Product of both: (89596647/25000000) ≈ 3.58
                           +-->(13/20) ≈ 65.0%
                               +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
                               |   +-->(49/100) ≈ 49.0%
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |   |       1xStone has a probability of (73453107/12500000000) ≈ 0.5% and a selling value of 2. Product of both: (73453107/6250000000) ≈ 0.01
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |   |       2xStone has a probability of (73453107/12500000000) ≈ 0.5% and a selling value of 4. Product of both: (73453107/3125000000) ≈ 0.02
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |           3xStone has a probability of (73453107/12500000000) ≈ 0.5% and a selling value of 6. Product of both: (220359321/6250000000) ≈ 0.03
                               |   +-->(3/10) ≈ 30.0%
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |   |       1xCoal has a probability of (4497129/1250000000) ≈ 0.3% and a selling value of 15. Product of both: (13491387/250000000) ≈ 0.05
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |   |       2xCoal has a probability of (4497129/1250000000) ≈ 0.3% and a selling value of 30. Product of both: (13491387/125000000) ≈ 0.10
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |           3xCoal has a probability of (4497129/1250000000) ≈ 0.3% and a selling value of 45. Product of both: (40474161/250000000) ≈ 0.16
                               |   +-->(21/100) ≈ 21.0%
                               |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |       |       1xIronOre has a probability of (31479903/12500000000) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 10. Product of both: (31479903/1250000000) ≈ 0.02
                               |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |       |       2xIronOre has a probability of (31479903/12500000000) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 20. Product of both: (31479903/625000000) ≈ 0.05
                               |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |               3xIronOre has a probability of (31479903/12500000000) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 30. Product of both: (94439709/1250000000) ≈ 0.07
                               +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
                               |   +-->(3/4) ≈ 75.0%
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |   |       1xWood has a probability of (4497129/500000000) ≈ 0.8% and a selling value of 2. Product of both: (4497129/250000000) ≈ 0.01
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |   |       2xWood has a probability of (4497129/500000000) ≈ 0.8% and a selling value of 4. Product of both: (4497129/125000000) ≈ 0.03
                               |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |   |           3xWood has a probability of (4497129/500000000) ≈ 0.8% and a selling value of 6. Product of both: (13491387/250000000) ≈ 0.05
                               |   +-->(1/4) ≈ 25.0%
                               |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |       |       1xCoal has a probability of (1499043/500000000) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 15. Product of both: (4497129/100000000) ≈ 0.04
                               |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |       |       2xCoal has a probability of (1499043/500000000) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 30. Product of both: (4497129/50000000) ≈ 0.08
                               |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
                               |               3xCoal has a probability of (1499043/500000000) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 45. Product of both: (13491387/100000000) ≈ 0.13
                               +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
                               |   +-->(9/10) ≈ 90.0%
                               |   |   +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
                               |   |           3xTorch has a probability of (40474161/1250000000) ≈ 3.2% and a selling value of 15. Product of both: (121422483/250000000) ≈ 0.48
                               |   +-->(1/10) ≈ 10.0%
                               |       +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
                               |               1xCloth has a probability of (4497129/1250000000) ≈ 0.3% and a selling value of 658. Product of both: (1479555441/625000000) ≈ 2.36
                               +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
                               |   +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
                               |       +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
                               |               1xQuarz has a probability of (4497129/125000000) ≈ 3.5% and a selling value of 50. Product of both: (4497129/2500000) ≈ 1.79
                               +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
                                   +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
                                       +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
                                               1xQuarz has a probability of (4497129/125000000) ≈ 3.5% and a selling value of 50. Product of both: (4497129/2500000) ≈ 1.79
   (1/5) ≈ 20.0%
   +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
   |   +-->(49/100) ≈ 49.0%
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |   |       1xStone has a probability of (49/7500) ≈ 0.6% and a selling value of 2. Product of both: (49/3750) ≈ 0.01
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |   |       2xStone has a probability of (49/7500) ≈ 0.6% and a selling value of 4. Product of both: (49/1875) ≈ 0.02
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |           3xStone has a probability of (49/7500) ≈ 0.6% and a selling value of 6. Product of both: (49/1250) ≈ 0.03
   |   +-->(3/10) ≈ 30.0%
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |   |       1xCoal has a probability of (1/250) ≈ 0.4% and a selling value of 15. Product of both: (3/50) ≈ 0.06
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |   |       2xCoal has a probability of (1/250) ≈ 0.4% and a selling value of 30. Product of both: (3/25) ≈ 0.12
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |           3xCoal has a probability of (1/250) ≈ 0.4% and a selling value of 45. Product of both: (9/50) ≈ 0.18
   |   +-->(21/100) ≈ 21.0%
   |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |       |       1xIronOre has a probability of (7/2500) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 10. Product of both: (7/250) ≈ 0.02
   |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |       |       2xIronOre has a probability of (7/2500) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 20. Product of both: (7/125) ≈ 0.05
   |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |               3xIronOre has a probability of (7/2500) ≈ 0.2% and a selling value of 30. Product of both: (21/250) ≈ 0.08
   +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
   |   +-->(3/4) ≈ 75.0%
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |   |       1xWood has a probability of (1/100) ≈ 1.0% and a selling value of 2. Product of both: (1/50) ≈ 0.02
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |   |       2xWood has a probability of (1/100) ≈ 1.0% and a selling value of 4. Product of both: (1/25) ≈ 0.04
   |   |   +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |   |           3xWood has a probability of (1/100) ≈ 1.0% and a selling value of 6. Product of both: (3/50) ≈ 0.06
   |   +-->(1/4) ≈ 25.0%
   |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |       |       1xCoal has a probability of (1/300) ≈ 0.3% and a selling value of 15. Product of both: (1/20) ≈ 0.05
   |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |       |       2xCoal has a probability of (1/300) ≈ 0.3% and a selling value of 30. Product of both: (1/10) ≈ 0.10
   |       +-->(1/3) ≈ 33.3%
   |               3xCoal has a probability of (1/300) ≈ 0.3% and a selling value of 45. Product of both: (3/20) ≈ 0.15
   +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
   |   +-->(9/10) ≈ 90.0%
   |   |   +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
   |   |           3xTorch has a probability of (9/250) ≈ 3.6% and a selling value of 15. Product of both: (27/50) ≈ 0.54
   |   +-->(1/10) ≈ 10.0%
   |       +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
   |               1xCloth has a probability of (1/250) ≈ 0.4% and a selling value of 658. Product of both: (329/125) ≈ 2.63
   +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
   |   +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
   |       +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
   |               1xQuarz has a probability of (1/25) ≈ 4.0% and a selling value of 50. Product of both: (2/1) ≈ 2.00
   +-->(1/5) ≈ 20.0%
       +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
           +-->(1/1) ≈ 100.0%
                   1xQuarz has a probability of (1/25) ≈ 4.0% and a selling value of 50. Product of both: (2/1) ≈ 2.00
--Unsigned post by Fella (talk) 05:57, 23 January 2023 (UTC)
Hey Fella, if you could sign your posts with 4 tildes ~~~~, that would help a lot.
So, if you eliminate the columns involved with changing professions, the numbers are basically the same as what's on the page already. I don't think a second decimal place is particularly helpful when you're talking about such low profits.
The other changes, if I have this right, are that you've added Mariner + Ocean/Freshwater without Sashimi, and separated trash recycling into a separate table that shows Farming profession differences. (Differences of 1-2 gold per day). For those changes, you need to link to huge probability tables that are located external to the wiki.
I'm not sure any of that is worth the changes you're proposing. I believe the profits are so small, that one paragraph is sufficient. It gives the readers the idea that crab pots can be profitable, which is bascially the whole point. margotbean (talk) 02:03, 24 January 2023 (UTC)
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