Changes

|At the Spinning Wheel, the player can bet Star Tokens on whether the spinner will land on green or orange.

|At the Spinning Wheel, the player can bet Star Tokens on whether the spinner will land on green or orange.

Players can quickly earn the star tokens required to purchase all items in the shop by betting green, since the mathematical probability the wheel will land on green is 75%, versus 25% for orange. The probability is not a guarantee for any single roll, however. For efficient profit while protecting against losses, always bet half of the current stars. This can be calculated using the Kelly criterion for bet sizing:

Proportional on the player's [[Luck#Luck_Buff|Luck]], there is a chance for the spinner to slow down and come to a stop early while passing over the player's chosen color. This chance is ~33.3% higher if the player chose Green than if the player chose Orange.<ref name="festivalspinner"/> As the player cannot eat food other than [[Survival Burger|Survival Burgers]] at the festival, in order to maximize the chance of winning, the player would need to eat any +Luck food before entering the festival.

 

Proportion to bet = Chance of Winning - (Chance of Losing / Profit Margin on Win).

 

Simplified for the case of doubling a bet we get

 

Proportion to Bet = (2 * Probability of Winning) - 1

 

Proportion to Bet = (2 * .75) - 1 = .5 = 50%

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