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Recalculated odds for Green:Orange for Spinner from scratch, reference table will be put in discussion
|At the Spinning Wheel, the player can bet Star Tokens on whether the spinner will land on green or orange.
|At the Spinning Wheel, the player can bet Star Tokens on whether the spinner will land on green or orange.
When the spinner falls below a certain speed, if it would cause the spinner to land on the losing colour, there is a chance for it to set its speed to a higher speed, proportional to the player's [[Luck#Luck_Buff|Luck]]. This chance is equal to <samp>Luck / 15</samp> if the player chose Green, or <samp>Luck / 20</samp> if the player chose Orange.<ref name="festivalspinner"/> As the player cannot eat or drink in the festival (other than Gus's [[Survival Burger|Survival Burgers]], the player would need to use any Luck-improving consumables before entering the festival in order to maximize the chance of winning.
When the spinner falls below a certain speed, if it would cause the spinner to land on the losing colour, there is a chance for it to set its speed to a higher speed, proportional to the player's [[Luck#Luck_Buff|Luck]]. This chance is equal to <samp>Luck / 15</samp> if the player chose Green, or <samp>Luck / 20</samp> if the player chose Orange.<ref name="spinnerLuck"/> As the player cannot eat or drink in the festival (other than Gus's [[Survival Burger|Survival Burgers]], the player would need to use any Luck-improving consumables before entering the festival in order to maximize the chance of winning.
With no Luck modifiers, the Wheel is four times more likely to land on Green than Orange.<ref Name="initialVelocity"/> By taking advantage of this, players can quickly earn the star tokens required to purchase all items in the shop. For maximum expected profit while protecting against losses, the player should always bet 60% of their current stars on Green.<ref Name="OptimalBet"/>
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==References==
==References==
<references>
<references>
<ref name="festivalspinner">See <samp>Menus/WheelSpinGame::Update</samp> in the game code.</ref>
<ref name="spinnerLuck">See <samp>Menus/WheelSpinGame::Update</samp> in the game code.</ref>
<ref Name="initialVelocity>See <samp>Menus/WheelSpinGame::WheelSpinGame</samp> in the game code. There are 30 possible initial velocities, and given the constant rate of deceleration (without Luck), and starting position of 0 (pointing straight up), their final position can be precalculated. Of these 30 velocities, only 6 result in Orange being selected, for a 4:1 ratio of Green:Orange.</ref>
<ref Name="OptimalBet">The optimal bet can be calculated using the Kelly criterion for bet sizing:<samp>
<br/>Proportion to bet = Chance of Winning - (Chance of Losing / Profit Margin on Win).
<br/>Simplified for the case of doubling a bet we get
<br/>Proportion to Bet = (2 * Probability of Winning) - 1
<br/>Proportion to Bet = (2 * .8) - 1 = .6 = 60%</samp></ref>
</references>
</references>