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Line 54:
Line 54: − + Line 767:
Line 767: − * In the Spinning Wheel game, when the arrow is about to land on the wrong color, it may randomly gain a small boost, playing a "dwop" sound, and eventually land on the right color, allowing the player to win the bet. This chance is affected by the player's [[Luck]] level, and the trigger area is only 7/16 of a circle for each color.<ref>See <samp>WheelSpinGame::update</samp> in the game code.</ref> Line 782:
Line 781: − + − <br/>Simplified for the case of doubling a bet we get + − + −
Corrected numbers for Kelly Criterion and spinner outcome ratios
When the spinner falls below a certain speed, if it would cause the spinner to land on the losing colour, there is a chance for it to set its speed to a higher speed, proportional to the player's [[Luck#Luck_Buff|Luck]]. This chance is equal to <samp>Luck / 15</samp> if the player chose Green, or <samp>Luck / 20</samp> if the player chose Orange.<ref name="spinnerLuck"/> As the player cannot eat or drink in the festival (other than Gus's [[Survival Burger|Survival Burgers]], the player would need to use any Luck-improving consumables before entering the festival in order to maximize the chance of winning.
When the spinner falls below a certain speed, if it would cause the spinner to land on the losing colour, there is a chance for it to set its speed to a higher speed, proportional to the player's [[Luck#Luck_Buff|Luck]]. This chance is equal to <samp>Luck / 15</samp> if the player chose Green, or <samp>Luck / 20</samp> if the player chose Orange.<ref name="spinnerLuck"/> As the player cannot eat or drink in the festival (other than Gus's [[Survival Burger|Survival Burgers]], the player would need to use any Luck-improving consumables before entering the festival in order to maximize the chance of winning.
With no Luck modifiers, the Wheel is four times more likely to land on Green than Orange.<ref Name="initialVelocity"/> By taking advantage of this, players can quickly earn the star tokens required to purchase all items in the shop. For maximum expected profit while protecting against losses, the player should always bet 60% of their current stars on Green.<ref Name="OptimalBet"/>
With no Luck modifiers, the Wheel is ~3.3 times more likely to land on Green than Orange.<ref Name="initialVelocity"/> By taking advantage of this, players can quickly earn the star tokens required to purchase all items in the shop. For maximum expected profit while protecting against losses, the player should always bet 65% of their current stars on Green.<ref Name="OptimalBet"/>
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* If the player speaks to [[Caroline]], she says that [[Pierre]] has "been setting aside the best-looking produce for weeks in preparation" for the fair. However, his grange display contains produce that would spoil after sitting for weeks in real life.
* If the player speaks to [[Caroline]], she says that [[Pierre]] has "been setting aside the best-looking produce for weeks in preparation" for the fair. However, his grange display contains produce that would spoil after sitting for weeks in real life.
* The close-up window shown when playing the Spinning Wheel game shows the wheel in front of two tents, but outside the close-up window it's in the middle of Pelican Town square with no tents behind it.
* The close-up window shown when playing the Spinning Wheel game shows the wheel in front of two tents, but outside the close-up window it's in the middle of Pelican Town square with no tents behind it.
* After Stardew Valley Fair, [[Jack-O-Lantern]]s spawn in front of multiple houses in Pelican Town. 4 [[Decorative Lantern]]s also spawn in the graveyard.
* After Stardew Valley Fair, [[Jack-O-Lantern]]s spawn in front of multiple houses in Pelican Town. 4 [[Decorative Lantern]]s also spawn in the graveyard.
<references>
<references>
<ref name="spinnerLuck">See <samp>Menus/WheelSpinGame::Update</samp> in the game code.</ref>
<ref name="spinnerLuck">See <samp>Menus/WheelSpinGame::Update</samp> in the game code.</ref>
<ref Name="initialVelocity>See <samp>Menus/WheelSpinGame::WheelSpinGame</samp> in the game code. There are 30 possible initial velocities, and given the constant rate of deceleration (without Luck), and starting position of 0 (pointing straight up), their final position can be precalculated. Of these 30 velocities, only 6 result in Orange being selected, for a 4:1 ratio of Green:Orange.</ref>
<ref Name="initialVelocity>See <samp>Menus/WheelSpinGame::WheelSpinGame</samp> in the game code. There are 30 possible initial velocities, and given the constant rate of deceleration (without Luck), and starting position of 0 (pointing straight up), their final position can be precalculated. Of these 30 velocities, only 7 result in Orange being selected, compared to 23 for Green.</ref>
<ref Name="OptimalBet">The optimal bet can be calculated using the Kelly criterion for bet sizing:<samp>
<ref Name="OptimalBet">The optimal bet can be calculated using the Kelly criterion for bet sizing:<samp>
<br/>Proportion to bet = Chance of Winning - (Chance of Losing / Profit Margin on Win).
<br/>Proportion to bet = Chance of Winning - (Chance of Losing / Profit Margin on Win).
<br/>Proportion to Bet = (23 / 30) - ((7 / 30 ) / 2)
<br/>Proportion to Bet = (2 * Probability of Winning) - 1
<br/>Proportion to Bet = 65%</samp></ref>
<br/>Proportion to Bet = (2 * .8) - 1 = .6 = 60%</samp></ref>
</references>
</references>