|This talk page is for discussing Pig.|
Every time a pig produces a truffle, there is a 2/3 chance of it producing another. The first is guaranteed. We can work out the chances of second and subsequent truffles and add them up. The first ten terms in the infinite sum are
1 + (2/3) + (4/9) + (8/27) + (16/81) + (32/243) + (64/729) + (128/2187) + (256/6561) + (512/19683) + ……
Simplifying to the same denominator as the tenth term
1 + (13122 + 8748 + 5832 + 3888 + 2592 + 1728 + 1152 + 768 + 512 + ……)/19683
1 + (38342/19683)
1 + 1.94797……
As you can see, the second to tenth terms add up to almost two, and the sum to infinity is indeed 2. And remember, that's in addition to the guaranteed first truffle.
so, an optimal pig will produce an average of three truffles per day, in the long run
- Ok. The article had not said that the first one was guaranteed. I was figuring there was only a 2/3 chance of a first one, putting my count off by one. Butterbur (talk) 05:50, 11 November 2018 (UTC)
- Something is still incorrect about the mechanics here. Despite my best efforts, I am unable to replicate an average of 3 truffles per day. With 12 pigs over 28 days, maxed friendship and the Shepherd profession, and grass-free pens (grassy tiles can significantly reduce the truffles found each day) I get about 2.35 truffles/day per pig. If this math is even correct about how extra truffle probability is determined (what's the source?), the probability of getting that first truffle at all and/or pathfinding and time considerations may also play significant roles.Farmonymous (talk) 16:03, 10 January 2020 (UTC)
- Well, I have yet to be convinced that one truffle is guaranteed, experience being contrary. However, I've never optimized production as One More Day speaks of. I tend to think that the amount of grass-free space affects the count, up to who knows how many pigs in whatever number of open tiles. I'm not sure the pig pen needs to be grass-free if there's enough room total. I've never selected the Shepherd Profession.
- And that's because truffle count isn't the only factor to consider. I turn all or almost all truffles into truffle oil, an excellent profit center, especially while one is still developing the farm and in need of cash. Which is why I generally choose Tiller / Artisan professions. The truffle oil then sells for 40% more, which requires only 5/7 of the truffles to produce equal profits. I haven't kept tabs on max or average truffle production, because there are other affected profits that figure higher in my strategy. But I can say that I often get more than 2 per pig per day, probably over 2 on average. In truffle oil, these 2 truffles are as good as oil from 2.8 truffles in non-artisan oil. Perhaps I might even reach that 3/day equivalency?